Analysis of Time Taken for A Case to Be Determined in High Courts of Kenya

Abstract

The Kenyan High Courts face persistent case backlogs, undermining the constitutional mandate for timely justice delivery. This study sought to investigate case resolution time in Kenyan high courts on cases from 2012 to 2022 to identify factors causing delays and propose strategies for improving judicial efficiency. The objectives were to conduct exploratory data analysis to identify factors affecting case determination times, predict resolution times using survival analysis, and compare the precision of Cox Proportional Hazards and parametric models (Weibull, Exponential, Log-normal, Log-logistic, and Gamma). The study analysed 92,405 case records from 40 High Courts in 40 Kenyan counties that had established High Courts as of the study period. The data was sourced from Judiciary Headquarters at Milimani with approval from the Registrar of High Courts. Survival analysis methods, including Kaplan-Meier estimators and Cox and parametric models, assessed case type (Anti-Corruption, Civil, Constitutional, Criminal, and Family) and appeal status, with model performance evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Results showed Family cases had the longest mean duration (40.19 months, median = 35 months), followed by Civil cases (30.89 months, median = 23 months). AntiCorruption (14.22 months, median = 8 months) and Criminal cases (15.91 months, median = 8 months) resolved faster, while Constitutional cases averaged 21.54 months (median = 14 months). Appealed cases took longer (mean = 30.08 months, median = 24 months) than non-appealed cases (mean = 26.22 months, median = 15 months, p < 0.001). The Weibull model outperformed others (AIC = 713,383.0) compared to the Cox model (AIC = 1,668,250.5), excelling in modelling skewed durations. Recommendations include establishing specialized Family and Civil case divisions with mandatory pre-trial mediation, enforcing strict appellate timelines, adopting the Weibull model for predictive case management, increasing judge recruitment, enhancing training, and expanding and fully implementing the Judiciary Case Management System (JCMS) with a centralized data warehouse to ensure real-time monitoring and data integrity. Promoting alternative dispute resolution can further reduce court congestion, aligning with constitutional goals for timely justice.