Browsing by Author "Atitwa, Edwin"

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    Modeling and Optimizing Culture Conditions of Milk Kefir Grains Using Response Surface Methodology
    (Moi University, 2019-03) Atitwa, Edwin
    This study provides the application of response surface methodology in modeling and optimizing culture conditions of milk kefir grains for nutrition and health. The operational conditions considered during the growth of the kefir grains were number of rotations, fat content and time. This led to an increase in biomass of kefir grains with high level of probiotics. In order to obtain the optimum growth of kefir grains; culture conditions, culture liquid and presence of random effects were considered. Thus, an experiment was carried out in order to obtain the data which was used to establish the necessary conditions on the growth of kefir grains. Box-Behnken design was used to model the data and hence identify optimal levels of conditions for growing kefir grains. Further the random effects were identified. The evaluation of the presence of random effects on growth of kefir grains was established. The Design expert was used to extract data through controlled experiment. Formulation of first order factorial experiment based on a Box –Behnken design was performed in order to determine the effects of culture conditions on the growth of kefir grains. The data was fitted to the first order model and its adequacy was tested using statistical analysis. It was found out that the first order model could not fit data and hence second order model was used. The second order model was used to determine the optimum settings of time, number of rotations and fat content. Testing the prediction of the second order and its adequacy was verified using the I-optimality and G –optimality criteria. The statistical analysis was done using a two-way analysis of variance for fitting the data. The predicted response based on the growth of the kefir grains was assessed using ridge analysis and Lagrange multiplier method. Evaluation of random effects to the growth of kefir grains was tested by blocking. The variance, covariance and standard errors were also computed to assess the presence of random effects in each block .It was noted that fat content and number of rotations had a positive effect while time had a negative effect on growth of kefir grains. The quadratic and interaction effects of all factors were found to be insignificant at α=0.05. The tests for random effects were insensitive and remainder sum of squares was not uniform across the blocks hence presence of random effects. Using scaled predictive variance of stationery and non-stationary points, the second order model had a good prediction of region of interest for any two points. The study indicated the presence of random effects which should be controlled during growth. From the study it was recommended that all the culture conditions should be at stationery point so that the residuals are minimized during modelling and optimizing growth of kefir grains using milk.
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    Predicting the Number of Tourists in-Flow to Kenya Using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
    (UoEm, 2022-12) Gechore, Dennis; Atitwa, Edwin; Kimani, Patrick; Wanyonyi, Maurice
    Tourism is the leading source of revenue to the Kenyan Government, contributing about 8.8% to the Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product. Based on the 2019 report released by the ministry of tourism and wildlife, tourism industry contributed approximately $7.9 billion to the Kenya’s budget. This study was therefore developed to predict the future numbers of tourists that will visit Kenya between 2023 and 2025. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series model was applied for the prediction. The study used secondary data collected from the Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife. The data covered a period of 11 years from 2011 to 2022. The model was fitted to the real tourists’ data using the time series algorithm implemented in R statistical software. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion, the ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)12 was identified as the perfect model with minimum errors. The model passed the diagnostic test performed. Importantly, 95% confidence level prediction done for 3 years (2023-2025) using the model showed that the number of tourists expected to visit Kenya will increase significantly. Therefore, the study recommended that recreational facilities and accommodations should be maintained to cater for the high projected numbers of tourists. The study also recommended that the government of Kenya should strategize on how to beef up security to curb terrorism attacks and tribal conflicts which might discourage tourists.
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    Socio-Demographic Factors And Knowledge Influencing Associated With ORS Use For Diarrhoea In Children At Miathene Sublocation, Meru County, Kenya
    (2020-05) Ngechu, Judith Naita; Okeyo, Hesbon Okello; Ongeso, Abednego; Wanyoike, Peter Kamau; Atitwa, Edwin
    Oral rehydration solution is the gold standard treatment option in childhood diarrhoea though there are other practices like use of rice water, water sugar mixtures, continuous breast feeding for under six months and complementary feeding have management well dehydration due to diarrhoea. The study adopted mixed methods for data collection and 301 caregivers were interviewed and data analyzed using SPSS version 25. Bivariate analysis was conducted to examine possible associations between predictor variables and ORS uptake. This was done using Pearson’s Chi Square. Association was considered significant when p-value is less than 0.05. Results indicated that children average age was 28.44. About 50.2% of the respondents utilized oral rehydration solution, the utilization was significantly associated with socio-demographic variables such as age with (p-value =0.018), marital status (p-value =0.001), level of education (p=0.015), monthly income (p=0.046); caretaker’s variables such knowledge on how ORS is given (p=0.0001), amount oral rehydration solution given to child (p=0.011) and uses of oral rehydration solution (p=0.036), therefore, policy makers need to advice the government on different approaches to diarrhea management, which involves use of oral rehydration solution packets. Efforts are needed to incorporate herbalists into diarrhea case management programs so that they can also promote the use of oral rehydration solution for prevention of dehydration from diarrhea.
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    Socio-economic determinants of low birth weight in Kenya: Logistic regression analysis
    (University of Nairobi, 2010) Atitwa, Edwin
    Babies born with Low-birth weight are at increased risk for serious health problems which are accompanied by disabilities and even death. Hence this study aims to determine socioeconomic factors that lead to low birth weight of children in Kenya. Data used was from Kdhs 2003 and the significant effect of socio-economic determinants on low birth weight was examined using logistic regression analysis data is categorical and continuous in nature, where predictor variables being socio-economic determinants and birth weight being dependent variable. Results indicate that out of ten socio-economic factors involved in the study, six revealed some significant effects on the children with low birth weight, four determinants namely , sex of the child, antenatal visit for pregnancy, antenatal care attendance and time wanted pregnancy has no significant impact to the infant birth weight holding other factors constant. The six major socio-economic determinants which can alter the weight at birth for babies born in Kenya were Religion, Educational attainment, Age of household head, Smokes nothing, Current marital status, and Size of child at birth. Therefore Socio-economic determinants have a significant effect on Low birth weight which suggests a strong negative associated with infant survival in Kenya independent of other risk factors. Children can be ensured a healthy start in life if women start pregnancy healthy and well nourished, and go through pregnancy and childbirth safely. Also expectant mothers should keenly focus on the socio-economic determinants by avoiding some like smoking, acquire education so that they can understand how to take care of themselves and not always to depend on the doctor's advice, give enough time and prepare for the pregnancy