Articles: Department of Mathematics and Statistics

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Browsing Articles: Department of Mathematics and Statistics by Author "Atitwa, Edwin"

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    Predicting the Number of Tourists in-Flow to Kenya Using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
    (UoEm, 2022-12) Gechore, Dennis; Atitwa, Edwin; Kimani, Patrick; Wanyonyi, Maurice
    Tourism is the leading source of revenue to the Kenyan Government, contributing about 8.8% to the Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product. Based on the 2019 report released by the ministry of tourism and wildlife, tourism industry contributed approximately $7.9 billion to the Kenya’s budget. This study was therefore developed to predict the future numbers of tourists that will visit Kenya between 2023 and 2025. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series model was applied for the prediction. The study used secondary data collected from the Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife. The data covered a period of 11 years from 2011 to 2022. The model was fitted to the real tourists’ data using the time series algorithm implemented in R statistical software. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion, the ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)12 was identified as the perfect model with minimum errors. The model passed the diagnostic test performed. Importantly, 95% confidence level prediction done for 3 years (2023-2025) using the model showed that the number of tourists expected to visit Kenya will increase significantly. Therefore, the study recommended that recreational facilities and accommodations should be maintained to cater for the high projected numbers of tourists. The study also recommended that the government of Kenya should strategize on how to beef up security to curb terrorism attacks and tribal conflicts which might discourage tourists.
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    Socio-Demographic Factors And Knowledge Influencing Associated With ORS Use For Diarrhoea In Children At Miathene Sublocation, Meru County, Kenya
    (2020-05) Ngechu, Judith Naita; Okeyo, Hesbon Okello; Ongeso, Abednego; Wanyoike, Peter Kamau; Atitwa, Edwin
    Oral rehydration solution is the gold standard treatment option in childhood diarrhoea though there are other practices like use of rice water, water sugar mixtures, continuous breast feeding for under six months and complementary feeding have management well dehydration due to diarrhoea. The study adopted mixed methods for data collection and 301 caregivers were interviewed and data analyzed using SPSS version 25. Bivariate analysis was conducted to examine possible associations between predictor variables and ORS uptake. This was done using Pearson’s Chi Square. Association was considered significant when p-value is less than 0.05. Results indicated that children average age was 28.44. About 50.2% of the respondents utilized oral rehydration solution, the utilization was significantly associated with socio-demographic variables such as age with (p-value =0.018), marital status (p-value =0.001), level of education (p=0.015), monthly income (p=0.046); caretaker’s variables such knowledge on how ORS is given (p=0.0001), amount oral rehydration solution given to child (p=0.011) and uses of oral rehydration solution (p=0.036), therefore, policy makers need to advice the government on different approaches to diarrhea management, which involves use of oral rehydration solution packets. Efforts are needed to incorporate herbalists into diarrhea case management programs so that they can also promote the use of oral rehydration solution for prevention of dehydration from diarrhea.