Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorRonoh, Marilyn
dc.contributor.authorBurton, Danielle
dc.contributor.authorLenhart, Suzanne
dc.contributor.authorEdholm, Christina J.
dc.contributor.authorLevy, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorWashington, Michael L.
dc.contributor.authorGreening, Bradford R. Jr
dc.contributor.authorWhite, K. A. Jane
dc.contributor.authorLungu, Edward
dc.contributor.authorChimbola, Obias
dc.contributor.authorKgosimore, Moatlhodi
dc.contributor.authorChirove, Faraimunashe
dc.contributor.authorMachingauta, M. Helen
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-09T14:07:42Z
dc.date.available2022-02-09T14:07:42Z
dc.date.issued2021-03-12
dc.identifier.citationBurton, D.; Lenhart, S.; Edholm, C.J.; Levy, B.; Washington, M.L.; Greening, B.R., Jr.; White, K.A.J.; Lungu, E.; Chimbola, O.; Kgosimore, M.; et al. A Mathematical Model of Contact Tracing during the 2014–2016 West African Ebola Outbreak. Mathematics 2021, 9, 608. https:// doi.org/10.3390/math9060608en_US
dc.identifier.uridoi.org/10.3390/math9060608
dc.identifier.urihttp://repository.embuni.ac.ke/handle/embuni/3986
dc.descriptionArticleen_US
dc.description.abstractThe 2014–2016 West African outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) was the largest and most deadly to date. Contact tracing, following up those who may have been infected through contact with an infected individual to prevent secondary spread, plays a vital role in controlling such outbreaks. Our aim in this work was to mechanistically represent the contact tracing process to illustrate potential areas of improvement in managing contact tracing efforts. We also explored the role contact tracing played in eventually ending the outbreak. We present a system of ordinary differential equations to model contact tracing in Sierra Leonne during the outbreak. Using data on cumulative cases and deaths, we estimate most of the parameters in our model. We include the novel features of counting the total number of people being traced and tying this directly to the number of tracers doing this work. Our work highlights the importance of incorporating changing behavior into one’s model as needed when indicated by the data and reported trends. Our results show that a larger contact tracing program would have reduced the death toll of the outbreak. Counting the total number of people being traced and including changes in behavior in our model led to better understanding of disease management.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherMDPIen_US
dc.subjectebola contact tracingen_US
dc.subjectdifferential equationsen_US
dc.subjectparameter estimationen_US
dc.titleA Mathematical Model of Contact Tracing during the 2014–2016 West African Ebola Outbreaken_US
dc.typeArticleen_US


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record