Parameters And State Estimates Of Sex Based Covid-19 Model Using Kenya Data, Nonlinear Least Square And Interpolating Polynomials

Abstract

COVID-19 spread in Kenya has been growing at a very high rate in the recent past. According to the Kenya’s ministry of health, the confirmed COVID-19 infections as of 19th July 2020 was 13,353 with recorded 5,122 recoveries and 234 deaths. Based on quarantine data, there is media speculation about COVID-19 manifesting gender dimension, however, no studies have been carried out to establish the gender-based dimension in the community. This paper aimed at: formulating gender based Mathematical model, estimate gender-based disease burden in the community using quarantine data and using estimated parameters and states to predict dynamics of the disease in the quarantine centers. Mathematical compartment model was developed using characteristic and status of disease. Daily number of infectious and exposed in the community was estimated using interpolating polynomials. Nonlinear least square was used to fit observed data in the developed model. Prediction of the initial value problem was carried out using MATLAB inbuilt ode solver. Daily estimate of states in Figures 8 and 9 confirms that COVID-19 is also burdening more males in the community than females. Simulation using MATLAB indicated that the number of individuals who will remain constantly infected after disease induced deaths and recoveries ranges between (567 − 219) and (363 − 116) for males and females respectively. Future studies should focus on Mathematical model analysis and predictions of disease burden in the community.