Demonstrating Effect of Rainfall Characteristics on Wheat Yield: Case of Sinana District, South Eastern Ethiopia
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Date
2017-05Author
Bekele, Fitsum
Korecha, Diriba
Negatu, Lisanework
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Show full item recordAbstract
Demonstrating Effects of Current and Projected Rainfall Characteristics on
Wheat yield has been investigated in Sinana district for the period 1995-2016.
Data on rainfall and crop yield for the period 1995-2016 were obtained from
National Meteorological Agency and Sinana District Agricultural Offices, respectively.
Following data quality checking, rainfall data (current and future),
correlation and regression studies were analyzed using Statistical software like
Instat V3.36 and SPSS V20. Downscaling the output of CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 GCM
model (daily rainfall data) for RCP8.5 emission scenario using a web based
software tool (Marksim GCM) for the period 2020-2049 were used to determine
seasonal total rainfall and ascertain its impact on yield. This study used
mean, coefficient of variation, correlation and regression analysis to ascertain
the relation, cause and effect relationship between rainfall characteristics and
wheat yields. The results indicated that the mean onset date of the main rainy
season (JJAS) for Robe and Sinana station was June 30 and July 3. Furthermore,
the results of Pearson Correlation Coefficients indicated that kiremt
rainfall total (JJAS) had moderate positive relationship (r = 0.499) with wheat
yield in the study area. It was also observed that nearly fifty percent of total
variance of crop yield is explained jointly by kiremt rainfall total and rainy day
(R2 value was 47.9%). The result of projected wheat yield indicated that there
will be a slight decrease in wheat yield (qt/ha) after 2030 years due to the impact
of expected weakening of kiremt rainfall total. Taking in to account the
above findings, it could be suggested that the farmers’ community will be encouraged
encouraged to utilize timely climate information issued from National
Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) and other centers for farm
level decision to enhance their crop production.
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- Agriculture [96]